Thailand’s Q1 GDP Expands by 3.1%, but 2025 Forecast Faces Challenges from Global and Domestic Pressures

Thailand’s economy expanded by 3.1% in the first quarter of 2025, continuing the positive trend from Q4 2024, which saw a 3.3% rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 

Key takeaways

• Thailand’s economy grew 3.1% in Q1 2025, showing resilience but signaling softening momentum.
• The NESDC projects modest full-year growth of 1.3%–2.3% amid global and domestic headwinds.
• A six-point strategy targets infrastructure, trade, SMEs, agriculture, and tourism to stabilize growth.

The data, released by the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) on May 19, signals underlying resilience in the economy despite a challenging external environment. However, growth momentum appears to be softening, and projections for the rest of the year remain modest.

The NESDC has maintained a cautious forecast for 2025, projecting full-year GDP growth in the range of 1.3% to 2.3%, with a central estimate of 1.8%. 

This conservative outlook reflects significant global headwinds, including heightened trade tensions and the ongoing economic deceleration in China, a key trade partner. Recent U.S. tariff adjustments have added uncertainty to Thailand’s export performance, while volatility in emerging markets poses further risks to global trade stability.

Domestically, several structural vulnerabilities continue to weigh on the country’s economic prospects. High household debt remains a concern, with financial institutions being urged to closely monitor loan quality to prevent a rise in non-performing loans. 

Meanwhile, the agricultural sector faces persistent challenges from unpredictable weather and climate-related disruptions, threatening income stability for a large portion of the workforce.

In response to these multifaceted challenges, the NESDC has proposed a six-point strategy to guide economic management through the remainder of the year. 

The plan includes accelerating budget disbursement, particularly for infrastructure investments, to stimulate growth and improve fiscal resilience.

Efforts to overcome trade obstacles are also central to the strategy, with targeted negotiations aimed at reducing the trade surplus with the U.S., expanding into new markets, and promoting high-potential exports. 

Strengthening domestic production through enhanced import regulation and support for affected businesses is another priority.

Support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) features prominently in the plan, with initiatives focused on revenue growth, capacity building, and debt restructuring. 

For the agricultural sector, the government aims to implement contingency plans for crop shortfalls, improve water resource management, and promote technology adoption.

Finally, the NESDC is pushing for enhanced tourism infrastructure to attract international visitors. Measures include improved safety, streamlined immigration procedures, and better environmental and transport infrastructure.

Although the 2025 outlook remains subdued, the NESDC believes that effective execution of these measures could help stabilize the economy and pave the way for stronger growth in the coming years.