Thai Exports Set to Slow in Q3 Amid Trade War

Thai exports are projected to slow in Q3 2025 due to global trade tensions, sluggish manufacturing, falling prices, fragile consumer confidence, and potential tariff increases, resulting in minimal growth.

Key Takeways

• Thai exports are predicted to slow significantly in Q3 2025, indicated by a drop in the EXIM Index to a six-quarter low. This is due to weakened global demand, sluggish domestic production, and declining prices exacerbated by trade tensions.
• Trump 2.0 tariff policies and the end of the U.S.-China tariff truce impact Thai exports. Thailand’s manufacturing sector is struggling with a shrinking MPI, low capacity utilization, and competition from Chinese products.

• Lower oil and agricultural prices contribute to decreased export revenue. Fragile consumer confidence and fears of stagflation globally add to the negative outlook. EXIM BANK suggests various strategies for Thai exporters to mitigate risks and seek new opportunities.

Bangkok faces a projected slowdown in Q3 2025 exports, signaled by EXIM BANK’s Index dropping to a six-quarter low of 100.5 in Q2. Global trade tensions, particularly Trump 2.0 tariffs, are a major factor. A temporary US-China tariff truce ending in July/August spurred early-year Thai exports, raising concerns of a subsequent decline.

Domestically, manufacturing remains weak, with a shrinking MPI and low capacity utilization. SMEs struggle with Chinese competition and surging shipping costs. Declining oil and agricultural prices further strain export revenues. Fragile consumer confidence and stagflation fears globally also contribute to the bleak outlook.

Without tariff agreements finalized by July 9th, Thai export duties could spike, exceeding China’s. EXIM BANK forecasts meager 0.5-1.5% export growth for the year, urging exporters to diversify markets, utilize hedging and insurance, strengthen partnerships, and stay informed to adapt effectively.

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