The value of Thai exports in May 2025 expanded by 18.4%YOY to 31,044.58 million US dollars, the highest value ever, higher than estimated (SCB EIC estimated 9.0% and Reuter Poll median 6.7%) and expanded well, accelerating from 10.2% in April.
As a result, the overall value of Thai exports in the first 5 months of this year expanded by 14.9%. However, if considering seasonal exports, it was found that they contracted by 8.4% MOM_SA, reflecting a significant acceleration from the previous month.
Supporting factors
The main supporting factor was the significant increase in electronic exports of 217.8% (China) and 70.9% (Hong Kong). Electronic exports to the US, China and Hong Kong accounted for 67.4% of the total value of Thai electronic exports in May.
Gold is still a major export driver this month, but the special gold momentum that helped Thai exports grow well in the past has decreased significantly. Unwrought gold exports still expanded by 57.1%, although it slowed down from 256.0% in the previous month. This was supported by exports to Cambodia, Laos, and the United Arab Emirates, which expanded by 136.4%, 637.0%, and 100.0%, respectively (accounting for 80.5% of Thailand’s total unwrought gold export value in May). This may be a result of global demand for gold to support higher risks, as well as the factor of significantly higher gold prices.
For the special momentum from precious metal exports, which SCB EIC assesses as almost all being exports of gold mixed with platinum in small proportions to the Indian market for tax benefits of Indian importers, 1 this special factor has clearly weakened. The export value decreased to only 64.5 million US dollars from 113 million US dollars in the previous month and decreased from the peak in February at 1,269.8 million US dollars.
The value of Thai imports has expanded significantly, especially from China and Taiwan. However, the Thai trade balance has expanded again after contracting for 2 consecutive months, following the acceleration of exports.The value of imports in May was 29,928.1 million US dollars, expanding by 18.0%, higher than the estimate (SCB EIC estimate 13.1% and Reuter Poll median 13.1%), accelerating from 16.1% in the previous month, expanding for the 11th consecutive month. Imports (excluding gold) expanded by 11.5%, with capital goods being the main product group that expanded by 41.1% (especially imports from China and Taiwan that expanded by 35.3% and 61.7%, respectively). Meanwhile, vehicles and transport equipment, raw materials and semi-finished products (including gold), and consumer goods expanded by 23.8%, 19.3%, and 10.1%, respectively.
Meanwhile, fuel and weapons and ammunition contracted by -11.8% and -4.8%, respectively. Thailand’s trade balance (customs system) this month had a surplus of 1,116.4 million US dollars. This resulted in a cumulative trade deficit of -1,123.9 million US dollars in the first 5 months of 2025.
Donwside risks
SCB EIC sees Thai exports slowing down and shrinking in the second half of the year
SCB EIC revised down its full-year Thai export forecast to -0.1% from -0.4% in the previous estimate, with the impact on international trade becoming more severe and apparent in the second half of 2025 onwards, as many countries accelerated production and exports before being affected by US import tariffs. SCB EIC believes that the negotiation of a trade agreement between the US and its trading partners may be delayed and not completed on schedule, coupled with the US domestic legal process on the issue of the president’s authority to use import tariffs, which will be factors that will keep trade policy uncertainty high in the second half of this year.
However, if we consider the reasons for Thailand’s exports expanding well in the past 5 months, some of them may be due to temporary factors and there is a risk that these factors will gradually disappear in the rest of the year, as reflected in Figure 4, which shows the sources of Thailand’s export expansion in the first 5 months (14.9%) and the following observations:
1. Accelerating the export of goods that are not yet subject to tariffs : Electronic goods that continue to receive a 0% tariff reduction have resulted in an acceleration of the export of such goods to the United States. Exports of electronic goods in the group that receive a 0% tariff reduction were the source of Thailand’s expansion in the first 5 months, up to 5.5% from 14.9%. However, this group of goods tends to slow down due to the risk of being subject to a specific tariff in the future and the weakening momentum of accelerated exports.
2. Temporary factors for gold exports to India : Temporary factors supporting special gold exports from India through loopholes in Indian law that began to show results towards the end of 2024 were the source of the 2.2% expansion of Thai exports in the first 5 months. However, these supporting factors began to disappear after India changed its new laws in March, as reflected in (Figure 5, left).
3. Low base in the first quarter of 2024 : Thai export value in Q1 expanded partly due to the relatively low base in the previous year. Thai exports in the first quarter of 2024 contracted by -0.6%, resulting in momentum at the beginning of this year. However, the second half of 2024 had a high base, with Q3 and Q4 expanding by 7.5% and 10.5% respectively, reflecting the positive effects from the base in the second half of this year that will decrease (Figure 5, right).
4. The value of rice exports tends to continue to shrink : The value of rice exports tends to continue to decline in the rest of 2025 due to the tendency of rice prices to decrease from increasing world rice stocks and the cancellation of India’s rice export control policy. In addition, the volume of rice exports tends to continue to decrease from the loss of world market share back to India and the decrease in demand for rice imports from trading partners.
SCB EIC sees Thai exports facing additional downside risks from factors for the rest of the year
1) International trade policy, especially US import tariff policy, is still highly uncertain. There may be a tendency to use additional Specific Tariffs, especially for electronic products, which are likely to be affected by most Thai exports. SCB EIC found that if we look at the data of the top 20 Thai exports to the US with the highest value (77.2% of Thai exports to the US), 4 out of 20 products (33.8% of Thai exports to the US; EE group) are in the group at risk of being subject to Specific Tariffs, 3 out of 20 (9.8% of Thai exports to the US; Steel & Automotive group) are already subject to Specific Tariffs, and 14 out of 20 products are concentrated in the US market quite a bit (the total export value of those products relies on the US market more than 20%) (Figure 6)
2) The conflict between Israel and Iran, if it escalates into a regional conflict or worsens to the point where the Strait of Hormuz is closed, could affect energy prices and raise production costs worldwide, increasing the risk of inflation and worsening the global economy already facing the impact of US import tariffs, as well as affecting transportation and potentially slowing down global trade even more.
