Thai Stock Market Faces Volatility Amid Economic Uncertainty

Liberator Securities forecasts a modest rise in Thailand’s market, attributed to easing U.S. trade tensions. Domestically, the focus is on the recent interest rate cut to 1.75%. The SET Index is projected to face resistance at 1,180 and find support at 1,160. Investors should closely monitor economic indicators, as changes in global trade dynamics and monetary policy decisions may impact market movements.

Thailand’s stock market is experiencing heightened volatility as investors weigh concerns over slowing economic growth and global market pressures. The benchmark SET Index fell by 1.5% in early trading, reflecting investor caution ahead of key policy decisions and mixed corporate earnings reports.

The decline comes amid weaker-than-expected GDP growth projections for the first quarter, with the Bank of Thailand forecasting a modest 2.8% expansion, down from 3.1% in the previous quarter. Analysts attribute the slowdown to sluggish exports and subdued domestic demand. “Investors are particularly concerned about the impact of global inflation and tightening monetary policies on Thailand’s export-driven economy,” said Somchai Amornvivat, chief economist at Krungthai Bank.

Market sentiment has also been affected by uncertainty over the government’s stimulus measures, with debates intensifying over whether further fiscal support is needed. While some policymakers argue for additional spending to boost consumer confidence, others warn of rising public debt risks. The Finance Ministry is expected to announce its revised economic strategy next week, which could provide clarity for investors.

Despite the challenges, some sectors, such as tourism-linked stocks, have shown resilience, benefiting from a steady recovery in international arrivals. However, broader market trends remain cautious, with foreign investors pulling out nearly $500 million in April alone.

Looking ahead, analysts suggest that the SET Index could stabilize if global economic conditions improve and domestic policy measures gain traction. Investors will closely monitor upcoming central bank meetings and corporate earnings reports for further direction.

Sources: Bank of Thailand, Krungthai Bank, SET Market Data