Thai Stock Market Outlook on 20 June 2025

Asian equities and the dollar rallied as Trump delayed a decision on Iran strikes. Thai shares, however, were down on the week due to political uncertainty. The SET index closed at 1,067.63, down 4.9% from the previous week. Foreign and institutional investors were net sellers, while retail investors and brokerage firms were net buyers.

Analysts predict the Stock Exchange of Thailand may fall below the 1,000-point threshold, reaching a new low. This potential plunge is attributed to a recent political upheaval that could result in the collapse of the Paetongtarn Shinawatra government and a House dissolution. The Bhumjaithai Party’s withdrawal from the Pheu Thai-led coalition, triggered by a dispute over ministerial posts, a leaked clip featuring Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Hun Sen, and a conflict over the Interior Minister position, is central to this political instability.

Thailand has granted its inaugural virtual bank licenses to three consortiums: one spearheaded by Charoen Pokphand Group, another by Gulf Development, and a third by SCB X. These new virtual banks are mandated to commence operations within one year of the Finance Ministry’s approval, which was granted on Thursday.

In other economic news, the national wage committee has raised the daily minimum wage for unskilled workers in Bangkok to 400 baht, an increase from 372 baht. This new wage will take effect on July 1.

Furthermore, the Economic Stimulus Board has sanctioned a 110-billion-baht stimulus package. Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira anticipates this initiative will bolster GDP by 0.4% to 0.5%.

Regarding international trade, Thailand’s exports saw their largest surge since early 2022, reaching a record $31 billion in May, an 18.4% increase. The Ministry of Commerce attributes this rise to companies rushing to stockpile goods due to a temporary hold on Trump tariffs. Separately, Thai negotiators engaged in a video conference with their counterpa

The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% and projected two rate cuts in 2025. The Bank of Japan kept rates at 0.5% but will taper bond purchases. The Bank of England held rates at 4.25%, while Switzerland’s central bank lowered rates to zero.

China’s retail sales growth accelerated in May, but industrial production slowed. New home prices in China and UK home prices fell. Indonesia and the Philippines maintained interest rates, though the latter cut rates by a quarter point.

The SET announced changes to the SET50 and SET100 indices. King Power is seeking to terminate concessions at major Thai airports. Banpu Power will divest shares in 10 solar power plants in Japan.

Upcoming economic data releases include US manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence, new home sales, durable goods orders, GDP, and jobless claims. The UK will release GDP data.

Krungsri Capital Securities recommends a mixed strategy, focusing on energy, export-related stocks, and domestic stocks with strong fundamentals. InnovestX Securities expects the Bank of Thailand to maintain its policy rate. Technical views suggest support at 1,030 points and resistance at 1,100 points for the SET.

The Thai stock market rose modestly on Friday, buoyed by optimism over the country’s recovering economy and stronger regional trade ties. The benchmark SET Index gained 0.8% in morning trading, reaching its highest level in three months as investor confidence grew ahead of anticipated government stimulus measures. Analysts attribute the uplift to improving export data and stabilizing tourism revenues, key drivers of Thailand’s economic growth.

For now, the SET Index’s rebound signals cautious optimism, but investors will be closely monitoring global trends and domestic policy moves for clearer direction.

Sources: Bank of Thailand, Kasikorn Research Center, Reuters.