OCBC says the Thai baht’s bullish trend versus USD, near 34.80, could be capped by Bank of Thailand intervention concerns over export competitiveness, keeping USD/THB range-bound between roughly 34.70–35.30.
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THB nears 15-month low against USD, pressured by rising oil prices, a firmer USD, higher US yields, and BoT's accommodative stance—though sharper depreciation could challenge policymakers if inflation from elevated oil persists.
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Thai inflation eased to 2.4% in June, staying within BoT's target range, reinforcing expectations that rates will hold at 1% through August, keeping USD/THB range-bound.
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For Thailand, the dollar still dominates baht movements, driving roughly 40-50% of the currency's swings, while a stronger baht continues squeezing Thai export competitiveness against regional rivals like Vietnam.
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Investors are advised to stay cautious, as market conditions may still favor the US dollar against the Thai baht.
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Thailand's record April trade deficit and persistent strong imports are pressuring the Baht, despite portfolio inflows, with authorities warning of continued weakness against the Dollar.
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Middle East war fears and rising oil prices could weaken the Thai baht to 33 per dollar. Thailand, as a net oil importer, faces a higher import bill.
Read moreDetailsThe Thai baht is expected to weaken to 33.50 per US dollar this week due to Middle East conflict, rising US bond yields, and declining gold prices, despite Bank of Thailand intervention.
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