The US enforces a 972% tariff on Thai solar cells, leading to a projected near-zero export level by 2026

On April 21, 2025, the United States announced final anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing (CVD) tariffs on solar panels and components from Thailand. The 47-fold increase in Thai solar panel and component exports to the United States from 2015 to 2023 was a result of the relocation of Chinese production bases to Thailand, leading the United States to observe that China was using Thailand as a production base to avoid tariffs on exports to the United States.

And leading to the investigation of Thailand’s anti-dumping and subsidy complaints since April 2024, until October-November 2024, the initial AD/CVD tariffs were announced before the final AD/CVD tariffs were announced on April 21. The final AD/CVD tariffs that Thailand was charged with a total rate of 375.19% – 972.23%, which is significantly higher than the initial announced tariffs

For example, Sunshine Electrical and Taihua New Energy were charged the highest final tariffs of 972.23% from the initial 189.20%, while other Thai companies were charged at a rate of 375.19% from the initial 80.72%. Such high AD/CVD tariffs from the US will severely impact Thailand’s solar cell export industry as the US is a major export market for Thailand’s solar panels and components. Thailand relies on the US market for around 90% of the total value of its solar panel and component exports.

Solar panel exports to shrink to near zero in 2026

SCB EIC assesses that Thai solar panel and component exports to the US are likely to shrink to near zero by 2026 due to two main factors: 1) Thailand loses its price competitiveness compared to Asian manufacturing countries that are not subject to tariffs due to the fact that it is not accused of subsidizing the production and assembly of components from China for export, such as Laos, Indonesia, India, and South Korea. It is also at a disadvantage in terms of tariffs compared to Malaysia and Vietnam, which are subject to minimum tariffs of only 14.64% and 120.69%, respectively, while Thailand is at 375.19%.

Even general companies face tariffs that are more than 10 times higher than Malaysia. 2) The impact of the initial tariffs has already begun to be apparent. Since October – November 2024, when AD/CVD tax began to be implemented, Thailand has lost significant market share in the US, from 28% in the first 2 months of 2024 to only 6% in the first 2 months of 2025, while competitor Indonesia has increased from 2% to 16%, resulting in the value of Thai exports in the first quarter of 2025 shrinking by 52%YOY to only 12,623 million baht. The final tax rate, which is much higher than the initial rate, will likely cause exports to the US to almost disappear by 2026.

SCB EIC reveals 3 ways for solar cell manufacturers to cope with US tariffs

SCB EIC believes that manufacturers of solar panels and components can mitigate the impact of US tariffs through 3 approaches: 1. Become a supplier of intermediate products to solar cell factories in countries less affected by the US trade war, such as producing intermediate components and sending them to factories in India to assemble solar panels. 2. Accelerate the expansion of export markets to countries with outstanding solar power generation potential, such as India, countries in the Middle East, Europe, and Australia. 3. Expand revenue in clean energy production businesses in Thailand and abroad, using cost advantages and experience in the clean energy business group to expand revenue.

The government should urgently adjust investment promotion policies to be in line with the global trade context.

At the same time, the government should urgently adjust its investment promotion approach to be in line with the changing context of international trade, especially screening and inspecting factories that enter Thailand to conduct business in accordance with Thai investment promotion regulations, global trade regulations and trading partner countries, including monitoring projects that may be viewed as “indirect production bases” of conflicting countries such as China, in order to be able to inspect the production of goods to be in accordance with Thai investment promotion regulations and trade regulations of conflicting countries, which will help prevent them from becoming targets of trade barriers in the future.