The Thai Ministry of Finance has downgraded its projection for this year country’s economic growth to 2.8% from the previous estimate of 3.2%.
- The Thai economy’s growth projection for this year has been revised down to 2.8% from the earlier estimate of 3.2%, indicating a slower-than-expected expansion.
- Foreign tourist arrivals in 2024 are anticipated to decrease to 33.5 million, down from the previous forecast of 34.5 million, potentially impacting the tourism sector.
- Despite the downward revisions, the economy is expected to grow at a faster pace than last year, driven by higher exports, services, and tourism arrivals, with prospects closely linked to China’s economic outlook.
Last year’s GDP growth is expected to be 1.8%, down from 2.6% in 2022 and well below the Bank of Thailand’s projection of 3.6%. The official GDP data is set to be published by the National Economic and Social Development Council on Feb. 19.
The forecast for foreign tourist arrivals in 2024 has been reduced to 33.5 million from 34.5 million, and exports are expected to grow by 4.2%, lower than the previous forecast of 4.4%.
Despite these adjustments, the economy is anticipated to grow faster than last year, driven by increased exports, services, and tourism arrivals. This outlook for Thai exports and tourism is closely linked to the economic situation in China.
The Prime Minister and his advisors are using the lower GDP estimate to support their push for lower interest rates, citing the impact of high interest rates on the economy.
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin aims to stimulate Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy by injecting 500 billion baht by transferring 10,000 baht ($281) to 50 million Thais, who will be encouraged to spend the money within six months.
The government also aims to enhance tourism, a significant economic driver, in order to counterbalance the decline in exports, another crucial sector who saw a decline of 1.5% in 2023.
The economic slowdown was primarily attributed to a contraction in manufacturing, with estimated exports also experiencing a 1.5% decline.
