In March 2025, Thai exports surged by 17.8% year-on-year, marking the highest growth in three years and reaching a total of 29,548.25 million US dollars. This figure slightly exceeded expectations, with SCB EIC predicting a 14.7% increase and the Reuters Poll median projecting 13.5%.
The robust expansion continued from February’s 14% and January’s 13.6% growth, culminating in a 15.2% rise in the overall value of Thai exports for the first quarter of the year.
SCB EIC evaluates that Thai exports this month gained from increased production and exports ahead of the US announcing retaliatory tariffs, alongside the positive impact of the electronics upcycle.
(1) exports to the US expanding by 34.3%, the highest acceleration in 3 years and 3 months, especially electronic products such as computers, equipment and components, and fax machines, telephones, equipment and components, expanding by 107.2% and 44.4% respectively.
(2) Exports to China expanded by 22.2%, continuing from the previous month, especially intermediate and primary products such as rubber products, rubber, and aluminum products.
(3) Exports of electronic products expanded well, such as computers and equipment growing by 80.2%, computer components by 94.6%, and electrical circuits by 41.5%.
Gold remains a significant export driver in March 2025. The momentum from the special gold issue seen in the past months has started to run out, with unwrought gold exports still expanding significantly by 269.5%, accelerating from 26.1% in the previous month, especially in the markets of Switzerland (1,090.5%), Cambodia (60.5%), Hong Kong (195.0%) and the United Arab Emirates (100%), resulting from increased demand for gold to hedge against global economic risks, as well as the recent significant increase in gold prices.
As for the momentum from exports of precious metals and other precious metal-clad items, which SCB EIC estimates are almost all gold exports in the form of gold mixed with platinum in small proportions to the Indian market for tax benefits of Indian importers, 1 it is starting to show signs of running out, with a value of only 202.7 million US dollars (expanding by 1,022.6%), clearly decreasing from the previous month’s 1,269.8 million US dollars (expanding by 4,159.6%), and this special factor is likely to end. Since the Indian government removed platinum alloy products from the duty-free import category in early March, but still exempted the import of 99% pure platinum alloy (Figure 5), the value of gold exports and other precious metal and precious metal-clad products contributed to the growth of Thai exports in this month (Contribution to Growth) by 5.4% from the growth rate of the total export value of 17.8%.
SCB EIC projects a potential 0.4% decline in annual exports, with the trade war likely impacting the latter half of the year
SCB EIC estimates that the value of Thai exports in the first half of 2025 will expand well. The export value in the first quarter expanded by as much as 15.2%, while the second quarter will slow down considerably because many important forces will fade. In particular, the acceleration of orders by trading partners before the US trade barrier policy begins to take effect, thanks to the upward cycle of electronic goods and the factors of gold exports, including the export of gold alloys of other metals to India. In addition, exports at the end of the second quarter will begin to be affected by the trade war because President Trump has started to impose a 10% minimum import tariff (universal tariff) on almost all trading partners around the world since April 9, as well as announcing specific tariffs for each country/item of many products, such as steel and aluminum products. Automotive products collected an additional 25% from almost all trading partners. However, despite Trump’s announcement to postpone the collection of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, China, one of Thailand’s most important export markets, has been banned by the United States.
The SCB EIC estimates that Thailand’s exports in the second half of the year will face more severe pressures and uncertainties. The value of exports in the second half of the year will contract sharply, especially in the last quarter. As a result, the value of exports for the whole year is at risk of shrinking by -0.4% from the previous forecast of 1.6% (Balance of Payments figures, outlook as of March 2025).
U.S. reciprocal tariffs are higher and more widespread than previously expected. At the beginning of the year, the SCB EIC assessed that the US trade barrier policy would not be too extreme. The U.S. Retaliatory Import Tariff Rate (ETR) may increase by around 11.3%. If the U.S. enforces all the announced import tariffs, it will result in a U.S. ETR increase of more than 20%, almost double the estimate.
Source : Flash / ส่งออก มี.ค. 2025 โตสูงสุดในรอบ 3 ปี แต่ส่งออกทั้งปีเสี่ยงหดตัวจากสงครามการค้า | SCBEIC
