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Thailand’s export sector in early 2023 remained under pressure from a slowing global economy, and may shrink by 1.2 percent, from a previous contraction of 0.5 percent forecast in January 2023, according to a recent KResearch analysis.
The nation’s exports fell for the fifth consecutive month in February, down 4.7% year over year, primarily as a result of a downturn in the economies of its major trading partners like the US, the Eurozone, and Japan.
Thai exports to almost all major markets – except the Eurozone – have declined
This is seen by the manufacturing sector’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for these nations in February 2023, which stayed below the 50-point threshold. Thai exports, particularly those of electronic goods, electrical appliances, plastic pellets, and other products made of plastic, have decreased to almost all major markets, with the exception of the Eurozone.
Due to China’s suspension of COVID-19 control measures at the start of 2023, however, shipments to China have improved with lesser decreases. As China’s COVID-19 containment measures were lifted, the country’s demand for goods gradually expanded.
Thailand’s international trade may be impacted US and Eurozone heightened uncertainties
According to KResearch, the global economic slowdown would continue to put pressure on Thailand’s overall export growth in 2023. As indicated, the economies of the US and the Eurozone have seen more uncertainties, particularly due to issues in the banking sector. Thailand’s international trade may be impacted by this.
The high base of 2022 and the generally declining global commodity prices compared to last year are further variables hurting the nation’s exports.
KResearch therefore projects that 2023 Thai exports may shrink by 1.2 percent (from a previous contraction of 0.5 percent forecast in January 2023).
Thai exports in 2023 may see a deeper contraction of 1.2 percent, affected by the global economic slowdown (Business Brief No.3996) – KASIKORN RESEARCH CENTER