April 2025 Exports Remain Robust Amid Increasing Trade War Slowdown

Thai merchandise exports grew 10.2% in April 2025, driven by US shipments and gold demand. However, US tariffs and slowing global trade may cause export contraction in H2. Trade negotiations remain vital.

Thai Exports Show Strong Growth in April 2025

In April 2025, Thailand’s merchandise exports surged by 10.2% year-on-year to USD 25,625.1 million, surpassing forecasts. This robust growth follows a 15.2% rise in Q1, resulting in a 14% increase over the first four months of the year. Exports to the US, especially electronic products, expanded significantly despite tariffs, with a 23.8% rise from the previous year. However, steel and automobile exports began to decline, reflecting the impact of new US trade policies.

Import Surge and Trade Balance Deficit

Thai imports in April jumped 16.1% to USD 28,946.42 million, driven by broad growth including capital goods and raw materials, particularly from China. This spike contributed to a trade deficit of USD -3,321.3 million for the month, with a cumulative deficit of USD -2,240.3 million for 2025. Increased imports from China may reflect attempts to bypass US tariffs, potentially complicating Thailand’s trade relations.

Outlook and Trade Negotiation Imperatives

SCB EIC anticipates Thai export growth to slow in Q2 and contract later in 2025 due to further US tariff impacts, global manufacturing slowing, and fading export drivers like gold demand. A recent temporary tariff reduction between China and the US underscores the urgency for Thailand to conclude trade negotiations with the US by July 9. Success could help maintain Thai export competitiveness amid rising global trade challenges.

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